Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x25eb…2598 crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$362 (+25%) realized +$359 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$317
crypto 20% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 60% +19.5%
≤30d 25 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 60% +19.5%
≤90d 25 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 60% +19.5%
all 25 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 60% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 60% +19.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 48% +8.1%
15% -29.6% 36% -2.4%
20% -36.5% 28% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$7 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.46 per $1 lost it wins $5.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized+$359
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $225 $226 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$15 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 +$137 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $204 +$96 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$31 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $151 +$20 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $96 +$62 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.35 · official $427.35 (match) · 49 history records