Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
25 0x25eb…0506 weather 274 markets active 5h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$214 (+0%) realized +$243 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate69%178W / 79L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$81
14 days+$105
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$171
world 6% +$220
other 1% −$208
sports 1% +$345
politics 0% −$28
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +16.1% +5.0% 52% 31% -4.4%
≤30d 34 +14.6% +3.7% 59% 26% -4.1%
≤90d 238 +5.6% -4.4% 69% 23% -9.4%
all 257 +6.6% -3.6% 69% 24% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 24% -9.2%
10% -12.8% 14% -17.9%
15% -21.2% 12% -25.8%
20% -29.0% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$30 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$627
Realized+$243
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses178 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions17
Markets (closed)257 / 274
History coverage164d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 40¢ $267 $210 −$58 (-22%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $58 $61 +$3 (+5%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? Yes 6¢ 27¢ $10 $44 +$34 (+361%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $53 $31 −$22 (-41%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 38¢ 26¢ $43 $29 −$14 (-32%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? No 66¢ 89¢ $21 $29 +$7 (+35%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 67¢ 46¢ $34 $23 −$10 (-31%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%? Yes 1¢ 20¢ $2 $22 +$21 (+1341%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes 13¢ 34¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+164%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 45¢ 60¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+32%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+437%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $29 $9 −$20 (-68%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be at least 7.00%? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$18 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $58 +$19 +33%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 +$3 +4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $75 +$125 +167%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $181 −$180 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 +$57 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $75 +$35 +47%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 +$43 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$34 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $291 +$9 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$13 +197%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $28 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $96 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $285 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 3? Jun 04 $89 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $26 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $368 +$32 +9%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? May 28 $171 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15? May 16 $486 −$447 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 14? May 15 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 14? May 14 $927 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 13? May 14 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 13? May 14 $52 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on May 13? May 13 $474 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 12? May 13 $358 +$5 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? May 12 $81 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 11? May 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 11? May 12 $164 +$36 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 11? May 12 $292 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11? May 11 $666 −$426 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 10? May 11 $135 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 10? May 11 $89 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 9? May 10 $532 +$27 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 9? May 10 $298 +$36 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $14 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 16h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $93 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $90 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $75 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $181 2d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $75 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.57 · official $625.66 (match) · 1840 history records