Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x25e9…5f6c sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$385 (+9%) realized +$393 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$430
7 days+$304
14 days+$304
30 days+$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$296
other 3% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +7.6% -2.6% 50% 47% -2.0%
≤30d 36 +7.6% -2.6% 50% 47% -2.0%
≤90d 36 +7.6% -2.6% 50% 47% -2.0%
all 38 +6.2% -3.9% 50% 47% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 47% -1.0%
10% -13.1% 47% -10.4%
15% -21.5% 47% -19.1%
20% -29.2% 47% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$84 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$393
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage221d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 48¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$94 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$11 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$91 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$120 +118%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$152 +149%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 +$107 +105%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 +$148 +146%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 +$121 +119%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 +$148 +145%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$100 +99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $101 +$54 +54%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$154 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 −$72 -71%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $101 −$3 -3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $101 +$87 +86%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $101 +$94 +92%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$6 -6%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $100 +$61 +61%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $102 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $196 10h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $208 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $112 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $101 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $101 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $222 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $102 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $102 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $102 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $254 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $101 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $102 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $102 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $100 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $102 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $102 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $102 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.86 · official $491.86 (match) · 66 history records