Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25e8…8e97 other 160 markets active 3h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%13W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$20
politics 30% −$24
sports 20% −$11
crypto 5% −$8
culture 5% +$1
world 4% −$4
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 73 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 147 -0.4% -9.9% 7% 0% -9.8%
all 159 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses13 / 146
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage101d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $197 −$2 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $52 $0 -1%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $37 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $246 −$4 -2%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $66 −$2 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $115 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 13 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $44 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 11 $49 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $226 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $61 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $146 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $94 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $188 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $396 −$2 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $117 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $867 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $113 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 2h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 3h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 9h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 9h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $53 14h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $49 15h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $51 23h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $41 24h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $41 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 37h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $46 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $46 45h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $41 46h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 3d
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $37 3d
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $15 3d
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $23 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $58 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $16 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $64 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $66 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.66 · official $47.66 (match) · 702 history records