Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25e6…74a9 sports 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$424 (-6%) realized −$424 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%91W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$29
14 days−$252
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$464
other 16% −$69
crypto 1% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.5% -4.6% 60% 60% -7.8%
≤30d 62 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 56% -7.5%
≤90d 174 -6.9% -15.8% 52% 52% -15.7%
all 174 -6.9% -15.8% 52% 52% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 52% -15.7%
10% -23.8% 51% -23.8%
15% -31.2% 45% -31.1%
20% -38.0% 40% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$35 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$424
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses91 / 83
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions4
Markets (closed)174 / 178
History coverage79d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 83¢ 84¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $44 +$13 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $64 −$63 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $119 +$74 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$26 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 +$37 +88%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 +$20 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $28 +$26 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$15 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $82 +$71 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $19 +$19 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $72 +$23 +32%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 +$80 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $110 +$81 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $38 +$15 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $159 −$157 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $131 −$130 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $176 +$129 +73%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $27 −$27 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $9 +$9 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $72 −$71 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $134 −$18 -13%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $33 +$11 +32%
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? Jun 07 $32 +$15 +46%
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $141 +$80 +57%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $140 −$138 -99%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $34 +$20 +60%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 05 $61 −$60 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $28 −$28 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 161.5 Jun 03 $15 +$15 +97%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $83 +$70 +84%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 02 $29 +$29 +97%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $91 +$75 +82%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $17 +$14 +83%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $20 +$46 +226%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $62 +$60 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $123 +$80 +65%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) May 30 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $60 +$58 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 28 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) May 27 $22 −$22 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $53 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $56 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $20 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $70 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $29 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $44 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $64 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $39 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $86 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $13 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $13 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $13 36h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $66 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $28 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $13 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $24 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $60 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $26 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $33 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $14 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $68 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $19 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $36 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $11 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $12 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $72 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $76 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.62 · official $226.62 (match) · 374 history records