Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25e2…1af0 world 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$7
other 21% −$9
politics 16% −$3
sports 12% +$1
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 29 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 81 -4.9% -14.0% 31% 0% -9.3%
all 85 -6.1% -15.1% 29% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage533d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $44 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $24 +$3 +10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $53 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $65 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $161 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $69 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 −$1 -77%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $33 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $35 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 -11%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $17 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $16 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $42 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $42 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $37 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $7 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $5 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $23 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records