Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25dd…c5f4 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$27
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$15
other 29% −$24
crypto 13% −$6
sports 13% −$7
economics 4% $0
finance 3% −$5
world 3% −$7
culture 2% $0
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 62 -1.1% -10.5% 2% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 114 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 123 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 112
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage97d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -3%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $49 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 10 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $50 −$2 -3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 06 $47 $0 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $39 −$2 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $52 −$4 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $44 −$1 -3%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $438 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 02 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $48 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $863 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $161 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $107 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $63 −$5 -9%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $62 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 23 $225 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $59 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $61 16h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $48 16h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 97¢ $49 20h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 21h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 27h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 27h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 35h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 35h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $47 36h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $47 42h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $57 42h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $57 47h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $58 47h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $49 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $21 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $29 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $36 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.08 · official $48.08 (match) · 475 history records