Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25db…28de
world · 49 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$41,703 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40,381 · open +$13,277
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$46,498
Realized−$40,381
Unrealized+$13,277
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses27 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)73 / 49
Avg bet$2,192
Trades / day188.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 16 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36,634
7 days−$35,493
14 days−$28,362
30 days−$40,381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $15,412 $14,319 −$1,093 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 29¢ 44¢ $7,293 $11,260 +$3,967 (+54%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 24¢ $2,603 $9,259 +$6,656 (+256%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $1,925 $3,747 +$1,822 (+95%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 44¢ $1,352 $2,909 +$1,558 (+115%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $651 $1,402 +$750 (+115%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $1,041 $1,075 +$34 (+3%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 50¢ $507 $870 +$363 (+72%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 70¢ $301 $488 +$187 (+62%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 16¢ 58¢ $113 $408 +$294 (+260%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $949 $255 −$694 (-73%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $423 $195 −$228 (-54%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $358 $162 −$196 (-55%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $159 $89 −$70 (-44%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $132 $60 −$72 (-55%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $265 $0 −$265 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2,422 $0 −$2,422 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $10,478 $0 −$10,478 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $308 $0 −$308 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Jun 12 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10,478 −$10,137 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Jun 12 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Jun 12 $4 +$811 +20346%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Jun 12 $226 +$2,594 +1149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +108%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30? Jun 12 $4 +$25 +715%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Jun 12 $81 −$60 -74%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? Jun 12 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $427 −$573 -134%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $19,781 −$19,781 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$40 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 12 $7,147 −$8,232 -115%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $876 −$865 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $107 −$104 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 12 $581 −$608 -105%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$5,197 +54344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$11 +85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Jun 12 $1,788 −$1,788 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Jun 12 $2,195 −$1,237 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 12 $325 +$8 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 11 $2,220 +$39 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1,098 −$630 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 10 $402 +$13 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $723 +$92 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $240 +$154 +64%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,075 +$729 +68%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $450 +$218 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $339 −$93 -27%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 05 $414 +$40 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $817 +$80 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 83% +$22,002
finance 17% −$12,972
other 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $115 2m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 7m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $37 13m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $745 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $49 26m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $40 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 28m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 28m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $84 28m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $737 31m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 43m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 38¢ $6 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $160 51m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 52m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $18 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $30 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +64.3% +48.6% 29% 21% -75.2%
≤30d 73 +66.4% +50.6% 37% 23% -57.5%
≤90d 73 +66.4% +50.6% 37% 23% -57.5%
all 73 +66.4% +50.6% 37% 23% -57.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover188.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.6% 23% -57.5%
10% +36.2% 19% -61.5%
15% ← realistic here +23.0% 18% -65.2%
20% +10.9% 16% -68.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,497.86 · official $46,499.18 (match) · 3500 history records