Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
25 0x25d8…a71f sports 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19,900 (-11%) realized −$17,454 · open −$2,446
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%175W / 195L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$478per market
Trades / day75.5pace
Fees−$1,288est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days−$630
30 days−$13,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$8,127
crypto 18% −$7,997
weather 3% −$1,741
other 0% −$2,622
economics 0% −$29
politics 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +39.2% +26.0% 100% 100% +17.6%
≤30d 171 -10.4% -18.9% 38% 36% -23.2%
≤90d 370 -11.7% -20.1% 47% 46% -18.8%
all 370 -11.7% -20.1% 47% 46% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 46% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 44% -26.6%
15% -34.7% 36% -33.7%
20% -41.1% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$597) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$379 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized−$17,454
Unrealized−$2,446
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses175 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,288
Open positions2
Markets (closed)370 / 372
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$478
Trades / day75.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $466 $437 −$29 (-6%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2,492 $75 −$2,417 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $168 +$32 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 8? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? Jun 15 $309 −$309 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 6? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 6? Jun 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 6? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 6? Jun 09 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 09 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 7? Jun 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $1,181 −$1,181 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? Jun 09 $2,185 −$2,185 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 7? Jun 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 09 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? Jun 09 $1,545 −$1,545 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $1,805 −$1,805 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 08 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $334 −$46 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +149%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $423 −$423 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 6? Jun 07 $650 −$650 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 6? Jun 07 $180 +$819 +455%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 5? Jun 06 $322 −$322 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $152 −$112 -74%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 5? Jun 06 $575 −$575 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $932 −$932 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,293 +$795 +62%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $824 +$176 +21%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $854 +$145 +17%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $179 +$721 +402%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $3 35m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $42 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $105 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $105 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $52 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $52 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $52 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $77 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $63 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $168 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $59 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 17d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $511.68 · official $511.68 (match) · 3500 history records