Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x25d7…8019 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$385 (-2%) realized −$640 · open +$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate68%43W / 20L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$153
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$547
other 6% −$49
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -26.7% -33.7% 29% 29% -7.0%
≤30d 11 -20.6% -28.1% 27% 27% -4.0%
≤90d 11 -20.6% -28.1% 27% 27% -4.0%
all 63 -12.4% -20.7% 68% 25% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 25% -14.3%
10% -28.3% 10% -22.5%
15% -35.2% 8% -30.0%
20% -41.6% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$133 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$1,203
Realized−$640
Unrealized+$255
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses43 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage126d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $798 $1,061 +$263 (+33%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $233 −$15 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $184 −$25 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $171 +$90 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $157 −$69 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $314 +$53 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $520 −$62 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $525 +$257 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$18 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $524 −$50 -10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Mar 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Mar 15 $81 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1 Mar 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? Mar 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Mar 15 $77 +$6 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Mar 15 $74 +$9 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Mar 15 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 19 be between 2,4 Mar 15 $50 +$41 +82%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 19 be greater tha Mar 15 $91 +$4 +4%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 19 be between 2,2 Mar 15 $91 +$4 +4%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 19 be between 2,0 Mar 15 $91 +$4 +4%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 19 be less than 2 Mar 15 $86 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 18 $712 −$712 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 18 $663 +$49 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 18 $636 +$27 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 18 $560 +$29 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 18 $595 +$41 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 18 $589 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 18 $555 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 18 $527 +$28 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 18 $501 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 18 $467 +$34 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 18 $448 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 17 $419 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 17 $347 +$72 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 17 $252 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 17 $297 +$50 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 17 $252 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 17 $235 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 17 $203 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 17 $222 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 17 $190 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 17 $181 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 17 $164 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 16 $144 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 16 $500 −$493 -99%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 19 be between 2,6 Feb 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $154 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $240 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $261 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $171 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $89 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $157 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $179 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $158 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $28 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $160 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $156 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $340 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,203.33 · official $1,203.33 (match) · 171 history records