Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
25 0x25d5…7076 crypto 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$758 (+15%) realized +$741 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%55W / 162L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$678
culture 23% −$89
other 20% +$159
politics 5% −$5
finance 2% +$44
world 1% −$31
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 16 +16.5% +5.4% 62% 62% +6.6%
all 217 -20.1% -27.7% 25% 24% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 24% +9.4%
10% -34.6% 23% -1.0%
15% -40.9% 21% -10.6%
20% -46.7% 20% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$7 · ×4.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$1,104
Realized+$741
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses55 / 162
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)217 / 232
History coverage244d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $446 $502 +$56 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $190 $166 −$24 (-13%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 45¢ 52¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 66¢ 60¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes $30 $2 −$28 (-93%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 25 $2 +$1 +50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 25 $12 +$7 +54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $10 +$3 +30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $106 +$34 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $10 +$9 +93%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $15 +$39 +262%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $50 +$37 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$2 +172%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 19 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 +$4 +400%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th A Mar 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars? Mar 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Mar 16 $5 +$23 +456%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1,000 +$29 +3%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 16 $3 +$3 +91%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will F1: The Movie win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academ Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud win Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 07 $25 +$18 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 9? Feb 11 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Feb 11 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? Feb 11 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 26h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $26 46h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $20 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 7d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 40d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 40d
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes $21 51d
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes $10 51d
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 51d
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 51d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY No 45¢ $102 51d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $200 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 63d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? BUY Up 36¢ $2 63d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? BUY Down 53¢ $10 63d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 63d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? BUY Up $1 64d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? BUY Down 74¢ $100 65d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? BUY Down 74¢ $5 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 70¢ $2 65d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? BUY Down 76¢ $10 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,103.52 · official $1,116.93 · 470 history records