Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25d2…0593 crypto 446 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,641 (-5%) realized −$1,641 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%259W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$90
14 days−$437
30 days−$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,495
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.0% -29.4% 44% 33% -18.8%
≤30d 16 -26.6% -33.6% 38% 31% -30.3%
≤90d 446 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 49% -16.6%
all 446 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 49% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 49% -16.6%
10% -24.8% 38% -24.6%
15% -32.1% 27% -31.9%
20% -38.7% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$55 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,641
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses259 / 187
Open positions0
Markets (closed)446 / 446
History coverage89d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 446 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$62 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $243 −$178 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $279 −$103 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $112 −$30 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $259 −$32 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 12 $124 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 12 $54 +$26 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 12 $41 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 12 $264 −$195 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 12 $604 −$450 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 12 $72 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 12 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 12 $145 +$82 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 12 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 12 $372 −$137 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 12 $103 −$73 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 12 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 12 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 11 $58 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 11 $84 +$60 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 11 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 11 $412 +$241 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 11 $83 −$75 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 10 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 10 $85 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 10 $77 +$38 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 10 $81 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 10 $150 +$141 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 10 $56 −$39 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 10 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 10 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 10 $131 +$19 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 09 $147 −$142 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $378 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $133 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $75 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $75 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $56 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $30 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $205 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $123 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $123 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $52 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $53 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $53 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $41 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $202 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $196 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $25 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1640 history records