Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
25 0x25d0…f1e9 crypto 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-1%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%84W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$25
world 24% −$9
other 18% −$89
tech 5% −$10
sports 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 58 -2.7% -12.0% 97% 2% -10.4%
all 89 -3.4% -12.6% 94% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 2% -10.0%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$38 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses84 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage137d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? Jun 15 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 11? Jun 12 $160 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 10? Jun 11 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 26 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? May 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15? May 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 10? May 10 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 2? May 03 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $153 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $151 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $149 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 3 to Apri Apr 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $98 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $98 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $150 29h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $5 43h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $160 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 6d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $160 7d
Will Solana reach $70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $165 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $150 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $150 11d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $150 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $160 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $160 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $130 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $40 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.05 · official $100.05 (match) · 181 history records