Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25cf…d9a0 sports 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$223 (-2%) realized −$211 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%98W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$170
14 days−$178
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$302
other 37% −$169
crypto 16% −$201
politics 1% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -40.9% -46.5% 20% 15% -42.7%
≤30d 23 -37.6% -43.6% 22% 13% -41.5%
≤90d 237 -15.6% -23.7% 41% 34% -16.0%
all 237 -15.6% -23.7% 41% 34% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 34% -16.0%
10% -31.0% 28% -24.0%
15% -37.6% 22% -31.4%
20% -43.8% 17% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses98 / 139
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions5
Markets (closed)237 / 243
History coverage75d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $82 $76 −$6 (-7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $27 −$4 (-13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $64 −$33 -52%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 17 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t Jun 13 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $87 −$9 -10%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$4 +62%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 −$3 -31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $133 −$71 -53%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $31 −$7 -22%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $45 −$37 -82%
Will CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$3 -32%
Will FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? May 02 $20 +$12 +59%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 $0 +9%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3 $0 -7%
Will Samsunspor vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? May 02 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? May 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$4 +43%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? Apr 30 $20 +$6 +29%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $40 −$33 -81%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $18 −$8 -45%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $22 +$60 +265%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club end in a draw? Apr 29 $19 −$13 -69%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $9 −$2 -29%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $10 −$4 -42%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $20 +$28 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 29 $22 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 29 $20 +$6 +30%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $17 −$13 -77%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $6 −$3 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 25h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 25h
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes $0 25h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $18 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4d
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 4d
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.27 · official $131.27 (match) · 694 history records