Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x25cc…bc10 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$5 (+14%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$1
sports 14% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+77.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +96.5% +77.8% 100% 100% +77.8%
≤30d 1 +96.5% +77.8% 100% 100% +77.8%
≤90d 1 +96.5% +77.8% 100% 100% +77.8%
all 1 +96.5% +77.8% 100% 100% +77.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +77.8% 100% +77.8%
10% +60.8% 100% +60.8%
15% +45.2% 100% +45.2%
20% +31.0% 100% +31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +96% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 10h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.92 · official $28.92 (match) · 4 history records