Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x25cb…36db crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$320 (+5%) realized +$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%52W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$303
economics 36% −$3
crypto 14% +$18
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 52 +2.1% -7.7% 96% 2% -9.3%
≤90d 52 +2.1% -7.7% 96% 2% -9.3%
all 56 +3.8% -6.1% 93% 4% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 4% -5.3%
10% -15.1% 4% -14.4%
15% -23.3% 4% -22.7%
20% -30.8% 4% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×71.87 per $1 lost it wins $71.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses52 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage132d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $2,480 −$3 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $105 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 26 $17 +$16 +97%
Will Solana reach $110 May 18-24? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 18-24? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 20? May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 19? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 56m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 24h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 25h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,509 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,511 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $2,477 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2,480 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.32 · official $44.32 (match) · 118 history records