Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25c7…9179 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,376 (-13%) realized −$1,514 · open +$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%28W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$352
14 days+$562
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$931
sports 35% −$322
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.3% -12.5% 30% 30% +10.2%
≤30d 92 -2.5% -11.8% 28% 27% -13.5%
≤90d 108 -10.0% -18.6% 26% 25% -21.5%
all 108 -10.0% -18.6% 26% 25% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 25% -21.5%
10% -26.4% 25% -29.0%
15% -33.5% 25% -35.9%
20% -40.0% 25% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$57 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$1,514
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses28 / 80
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 113
History coverage37d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 16¢ 40¢ $90 $228 +$138 (+154%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $23 −$4 -16%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals Jun 17 $32 −$31 -97%
Learner Tien vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$72 +117%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $25 −$9 -36%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $58 +$60 +103%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $64 +$43 +67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $207 −$15 -7%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$197 +293%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $147 +$114 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$65 +126%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $56 −$27 -49%
Málaga CF leading at halftime? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $50 −$48 -98%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $21 −$1 -7%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $55 +$68 +124%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $81 +$124 +152%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $95 +$185 +194%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $62 −$61 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -24%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $9 −$2 -17%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $56 −$47 -83%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $250 −$92 -37%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $63 +$66 +105%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $49 +$59 +121%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $63 −$61 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $228 −$225 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by W Jun 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 07 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $196 +$371 +189%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $28 +$322 +1159%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 05 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $22 +$24 +109%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $57 −$56 -98%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $198 −$193 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $201 −$2 -1%
Liaoning Tieren FC leading at halftime? May 29 $89 −$87 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $92 1h
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 2h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $32 4h
Learner Tien vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 99¢ $133 4h
Learner Tien vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $61 7h
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 7h
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 7h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 99¢ $118 8h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 48¢ $58 8h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $108 8h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 59¢ $64 9h
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 14h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 14h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will BUY 14¢ $44 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $44 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $148 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $78 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $78 15h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $50 20h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $47 20h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 43¢ $47 20h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $50 21h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 25¢ $67 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $117 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 24h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $52 25h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $49 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.32 · official $228.32 (match) · 231 history records