Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x25c6…2dc6 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,062 (-8%) realized +$319 · open −$1,381
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate67%28W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$7,307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$64
14 days+$106
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1,706
sports 5% +$577
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.5% -6.4% 62% 57% -4.3%
≤30d 33 +15.7% +4.7% 67% 64% -7.2%
≤90d 42 +18.5% +7.2% 67% 64% -1.3%
all 42 +18.5% +7.2% 67% 64% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 64% -1.3%
10% -3.0% 50% -10.7%
15% -12.4% 48% -19.3%
20% -21.0% 40% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$68 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$7,307
Realized+$319
Unrealized−$1,381
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses28 / 14
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)42 / 50
History coverage69d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $7,971 $6,669 −$1,302 (-16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $275 $176 −$99 (-36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $143 $170 +$27 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $125 $163 +$38 (+31%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $24 −$21 (-46%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $292 +$7 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$53 +87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$30 +145%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$9 +71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $189 +$21 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +249%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$12 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $8 −$5 -69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +13%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $512 +$514 +100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $571 −$561 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $68 −$68 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $32 +$36 +114%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $54 +$34 +63%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $99 +$53 +53%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $121 +$33 +27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $88 +$121 +137%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $59 +$98 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 50m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $255 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $275 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $25 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $56 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 35¢ $10 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $299 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $292 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,306.89 · official $7,306.89 (match) · 169 history records