Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25c2…7458 crypto 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$211 (-7%) realized −$178 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$26
14 days−$86
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% +$675
politics 26% −$506
crypto 20% −$241
sports 9% −$45
economics 8% −$91
other 4% −$46
culture 4% +$8
tech 2% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -32.3% -38.7% 20% 20% -14.4%
≤30d 15 -40.2% -45.9% 20% 20% -8.2%
≤90d 97 -73.9% -76.3% 5% 5% -10.6%
all 106 -49.0% -53.9% 9% 8% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.9% 8% -18.2%
10% -58.3% 8% -26.0%
15% -62.3% 6% -33.1%
20% -66.0% 6% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$15 · ×7.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 96
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage158d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 6¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $80 −$37 -47%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 −$16 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $31 −$24 -76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $4 +$12 +305%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $245 +$68 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $59 −$55 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $146 +$140 +96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $25 −$19 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $21 −$3 -12%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Apr 30 $12 −$11 -91%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 20? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 17? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 18? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 19? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 17? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 17? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >10% by Feb 20? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 20? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 18? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 18? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 17? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 1¢ $4 56m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 14¢ $26 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 30¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 58¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 47¢ $105 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 21¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $96 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 48¢ $74 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $51 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $43 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $66 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 1¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 12¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 24¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 24¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 38¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 9¢ $4 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.29 (match) · 390 history records