Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
25 0x25bf…7a56 sports 896 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,320 (-18%) realized −$8,320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%352W / 818L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Fees−$855est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$234
crypto 5% −$239
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -70.7% -73.5% 10% 9% -85.2%
≤30d 518 -40.7% -46.3% 21% 19% -53.2%
≤90d 1170 -23.0% -30.4% 30% 28% -29.7%
all 1170 -23.0% -30.4% 30% 28% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 28% -29.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.0% 26% -36.5%
15% -43.1% 24% -42.6%
20% -48.7% 21% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$34 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses352 / 818
Est. fees paid−$855
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1170 / 896
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1170 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Ugo Humbert Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Miami Open: Moise Kouame vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Ugo Humbert Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
ASB Classic: Cameron Norrie vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 15 $170 −$170 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Kamil Majchrzak vs Quentin Haly Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Machac vs. Mannarino Jun 15 $20 −$40 -202%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Jun 15 $62 −$54 -86%
US Open: Emma Navarro vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
European Open: Raphael Collignon vs Francisco Comesana Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Chile Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Ignacio Buse Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
New Delhi: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Rio Noguchi Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Sebastian Korda vs Ugo Humbert Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
US Open: Adam Walton vs Chak Lam Coleman Wong Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Quentin Halys vs Jack Draper Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 28? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 16? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Qatar Open: Moez Echargui vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Alexis Galarneau vs Tomas Barrios Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Oman (Game 1) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Luca Nardi vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
ASB Classic, Qualification: Eliot Spizzirri vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
China Open: Learner Tien vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Jun 15 $23 −$17 -75%
Rotterdam Open: Zizou Bergs vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Dane Sweeny Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Marcos Giron Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Jenson Brooksby vs Botic van de Za Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Cap Cana: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Miami Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 15? Jun 15 $11 +$127 +1158%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Moez Echargui vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricar Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 25? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 29? Jun 15 $27 −$22 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30? Jun 15 $255 −$361 -142%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Ugo Humbert vs Reilly Opelka Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: David Goffin vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexican Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Terence Atmane vs Yannick Hanfm Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Miami Open: Quentin Halys vs Liam Draxl Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Qatar Open, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Roberto Carballes Bae Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Felix Gill 70¢ $22 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 44¢ $14 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 54¢ $30 4h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 33¢ $16 4h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 80¢ $40 7h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 33¢ $2 7h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 33¢ $33 7h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 99¢ $47 7h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 14¢ $5 8h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 36¢ $17 8h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 59¢ $30 9h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 29¢ $20 9h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 56¢ $28 9h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 45¢ $16 9h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 40¢ $20 9h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 50¢ $20 10h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 59¢ $30 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 26h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 41¢ $10 28h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 2¢ $2 28h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 41¢ $20 30h
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 35¢ $20 30h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 37¢ $20 30h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 53¢ $30 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records