Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25bf…91a4 crypto 717 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%464W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$90
14 days−$115
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$85
politics 0% +$2
world 0% $0
other 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 29% -13.0%
≤30d 717 -0.7% -10.2% 65% 38% -10.5%
≤90d 717 -0.7% -10.2% 65% 38% -10.5%
all 717 -0.7% -10.2% 65% 38% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 38% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 28% -19.1%
15% -26.6% 23% -26.9%
20% -33.8% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses464 / 253
Open positions0
Markets (closed)717 / 717
History coverage26d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 717 Trades
no open positions (107 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 1687 history records