Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25be…3408 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$191 (-16%) realized −$154 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$193
sports 4% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -37.5% -43.5% 30% 30% -26.1%
≤30d 10 -37.5% -43.5% 30% 30% -26.1%
≤90d 10 -37.5% -43.5% 30% 30% -26.1%
all 10 -37.5% -43.5% 30% 30% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 30% -26.1%
10% -48.9% 20% -33.2%
15% -53.8% 20% -39.6%
20% -58.4% 20% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$69 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $50 $12 −$37 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$36 -88%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $311 +$176 +56%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $148 −$105 -71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $43 +$72 +168%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $99 −$54 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 5d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $299 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 80¢ $115 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $43 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $43 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $45 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $45 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $99 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.50 · official $12.50 (match) · 20 history records