Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25be…c972 world 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+1%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%33W / 52L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$22
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$5
sports 23% −$3
politics 22% +$108
other 16% +$14
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -3.2% -12.4% 34% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 41 -3.7% -12.9% 37% 2% -8.3%
all 85 -2.2% -11.6% 39% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -8.4%
10% -20.0% 2% -17.1%
15% -27.7% 2% -25.1%
20% -34.8% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses33 / 52
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage455d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 69¢ 60¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $80 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $148 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $181 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $495 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $162 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $479 −$4 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $249 −$21 -8%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $148 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $183 +$3 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $28 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $333 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $335 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $171 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $9 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $340 +$2 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $164 +$15 +9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $154 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $169 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $153 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $182 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $63 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $58 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $264 +$1 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Apr 24 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $2,082 +$107 +5%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $273 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $42 +$15 +35%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,198 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $128 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $3 $0 -11%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 04 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 26 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $80 19m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $80 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $148 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $148 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $54 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $128 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $129 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $150 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $162 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $95 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $52 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $162 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $65 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $65 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $102 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $20 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $41 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $52 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $52 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.21 · official $0.00 · 392 history records