Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x25bd…b34c sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+17%) realized +$78 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$102
14 days+$99
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$32
crypto 20% −$19
other 19% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +64.8% +49.1% 67% 67% +63.6%
≤30d 36 +5.4% -4.6% 53% 53% -0.8%
≤90d 39 +7.4% -2.8% 54% 54% +1.6%
all 39 +7.4% -2.8% 54% 54% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 54% +1.6%
10% -12.1% 54% -8.1%
15% -20.6% 54% -17.0%
20% -28.4% 44% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage33d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$20 +197%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$19 +186%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$35 +172%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$12 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Seri May 30 $10 +$12 +115%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 18 $20 +$13 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $10 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $9 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 59¢ $10 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 46¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 18¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $20 14d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 24¢ $10 17d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 49¢ $10 17d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 60¢ $10 18d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Gaimin Gladiators 27¢ $10 18d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 19d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $10 19d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 55¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.79 · official $22.79 (match) · 71 history records