Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25bc…120f politics 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$18
other 26% −$7
sports 25% −$13
crypto 5% −$2
world 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.8%
all 87 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage207d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $543 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $261 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $536 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $539 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 10 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 06 $262 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $543 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $263 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $271 −$8 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 15 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $280 −$10 -4%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $280 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $280 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $279 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $279 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $280 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 10 $280 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $281 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $563 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $281 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 27 $281 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $281 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $281 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $281 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 19 $281 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $281 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $281 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $552 $0 -0%
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 10 $281 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $275 $0 +0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 05 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 03 $268 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 02 $271 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $273 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 07 $269 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $268 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $269 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $274 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Feb 04 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 01 $280 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $274 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $261 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $261 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $261 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $238 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 12d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $261 17d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $262 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $262 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $262 22d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $262 26d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $262 27d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 32d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 32d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 39d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 40d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $263 41d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $263 42d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $263 43d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $271 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $271 44d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $270 45d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $270 45d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $280 45d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $280 48d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 48d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $113 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records