Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x25ba…1eab other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$785 (+53%) realized +$789 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$215
14 days+$215
30 days+$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$441
other 37% +$199
sports 4% +$109
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% +$33
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +18.3% +7.1% 23% 23% +25.3%
≤30d 24 +53.5% +38.9% 29% 29% +42.0%
≤90d 24 +53.5% +38.9% 29% 29% +42.0%
all 34 +65.2% +49.4% 38% 38% +52.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.4% 38% +52.5%
10% +35.1% 38% +37.9%
15% +22.1% 38% +24.6%
20% +10.1% 32% +12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +134% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$12 · ×6.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.14 per $1 lost it wins $4.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$789
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions49
Markets (closed)34 / 83
History coverage588d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 60¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 26¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+300%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 83¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 64¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 88¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +244%
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +238%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Jun 14 $205 −$159 -78%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Jun 14 $157 +$227 +145%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $35 +$16 +44%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 09 $35 +$184 +525%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? May 22 $10 +$33 +319%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $15 +$84 +562%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Mar 05 $10 +$81 +809%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $50 +$108 +216%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House Nov 12 $5 −$4 -80%
House control after 2024 election? Nov 12 $5 −$4 -83%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 12 $10 −$6 -60%
Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Nov 06 $30 +$15 +52%
Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election? Nov 06 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $103 +$60 +58%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $240 +$163 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 57m
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $4 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $4 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $3 3h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $1 4h
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 0¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 7h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 0¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 7h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 12h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $0 12h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $1 12h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $1 12h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $1 15h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $0 17h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $1 19h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $1 19h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 13¢ $2 21h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 21h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 41¢ $2 21h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 56¢ $2 21h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.96 · official $287.96 (match) · 178 history records