Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

25 0x25b9…a250 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$1,517 (+26%) realized +$1,529 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$230per market

Trades / day6.6pace

Fees−$36est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$2,392now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+19.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+31.5%	+19.0%	70%	65%	+37.9%
≤30d	20	+31.5%	+19.0%	70%	65%	+37.9%
≤90d	20	+31.5%	+19.0%	70%	65%	+37.9%
all	20	+31.5%	+19.0%	70%	65%	+37.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.0%	65%	+37.9%
10%	+7.6%	60%	+24.7%
15%	-2.8%	60%	+12.7%
20%	-12.3%	50%	+1.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +31% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late +73% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$135 vs −$25 · ×5.5 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.83 per $1 lost it wins $12.83

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$2,392

Realized+$1,529

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Est. fees paid−$36

Open positions5

Markets (closed)20 / 25

History coverage5d

Avg bet$230

Trades / day6.6

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$613	$615	+$2 (+0%)
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	63¢	62¢	$615	$610	−$5 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$414	$411	−$3 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	Over	64¢	64¢	$414	$411	−$3 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$348	$345	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$590	+$269	+46%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$191	+$119	+62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$533	+$781	+146%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$121	+$79	+65%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$402	+$39	+10%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$20	+$10	+50%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$10	+$20	+197%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$281	+$260	+92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$51	+$28	+55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	+$6	+12%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$304	−$9	-3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$20	+$14	+70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 20	$10	+$13	+131%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$253	−$57	-22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$405	+$254	+63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$3	+$2	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$145	11m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$418	16m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	64¢	$418	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$471	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$352	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	63¢	$622	2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	68¢	$590	2h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	61¢	$191	16h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	60¢	$121	19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	39¢	$432	19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	46¢	$231	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$402	22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	47¢	$48	24h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	50¢	$296	24h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	33¢	$10	25h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$51	25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	89¢	$50	26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$304	28h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	SELL Netherlands	80¢	$2	3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	SELL Netherlands	80¢	$2	3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	SELL Netherlands	80¢	$19	3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	34¢	$10	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	56¢	$196	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$253	3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	54¢	$20	4d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)	BUY Brazil	18¢	$20	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,392.09 · official $2,392.09 (match) · 53 history records