Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x25b7…7023 weather 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$317 · open −$243
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate86%32W / 5L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$12
politics 29% +$3
other 25% −$1
crypto 10% −$188
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 -0.0% -9.5% 88% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 34 +0.2% -9.3% 88% 0% -9.2%
all 37 +3.5% -6.4% 86% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 3% -8.3%
10% -15.3% 3% -17.1%
15% -23.5% 3% -25.1%
20% -31.0% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.04 per $1 lost it wins $5.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$607
Realized+$317
Unrealized−$243
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses32 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions9
Markets (closed)37 / 46
History coverage105d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 96¢ $265 $508 +$243 (+92%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 4¢ $265 $22 −$243 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 77°F or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 28? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $565 −$15 -3%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? May 26 $622 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or higher on May 21? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or higher on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 15? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C or below on May 15? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 14? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 9? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 9? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 9? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on May 9? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on April 28? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 11°C or below on April 28 May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ap May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on April 28? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $466 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $85 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,273 +$27 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $758 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $759 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 28 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $276 −$2 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 12 $182 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3AM ET Mar 12 $45 +$55 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 77°F or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 19d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $224 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $160 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $7 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $79 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $39 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $33 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $8 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $15 20d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or higher on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $9 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or higher on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $9 26d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $9 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.83 · official $606.83 (match) · 242 history records