Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25b6…260a
other · 1372 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$158 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$158 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1033 / 339
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1372 / 1372
History coverage11d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day198.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 0 History 1372 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$424
14 days−$158
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +196%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% −$30
crypto 27% −$113
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 419 -38.0% -43.9% 24% 20% -47.4%
≤30d 1372 -10.3% -18.9% 75% 10% -10.9%
≤90d 1372 -10.3% -18.9% 75% 10% -10.9%
all 1372 -10.3% -18.9% 75% 10% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover198.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 10% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 5% -19.4%
15% -33.7% 4% -27.2%
20% -40.2% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records