Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25b3…5feb other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 329d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
world 24% +$2
politics 19% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 0% -8.8%
all 43 -0.5% -9.9% 35% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage329d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 67¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 +$1 +5%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 09 $24 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? Aug 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 -5%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $61 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 03 $4 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 02 $13 $0 -3%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $1 $0 -2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $61 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before August? Jul 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $58 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in July? Jul 30 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $31 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $9 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $32 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $25 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $17 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $10 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $22 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $26 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $4 11d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $30 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $27 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $27 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $33 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $33 13d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 287d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? SELL No 99¢ $37 317d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 317d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 317d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.68 · official $31.91 (match) · 147 history records