Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
25 0x25b2…07ae sports 3 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (266 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$441 (+68%) realized +$441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day266.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$285
world 31% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +65.2% +49.5% 100% 100% +52.2%
≤30d 3 +65.2% +49.5% 100% 100% +52.2%
≤90d 3 +65.2% +49.5% 100% 100% +52.2%
all 3 +65.2% +49.5% 100% 100% +52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover266.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.5% 100% +52.2%
10% ← realistic here +35.2% 100% +37.6%
15% +22.1% 67% +24.3%
20% +10.1% 67% +12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
51.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day266.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 23 $199 +$157 +79%
Will Nneka Ogwumike have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 202 Jun 23 $191 +$45 +24%
Will Natasha Mack have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 23 $257 +$239 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 3h
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records