Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25b2…3b9e
other · 95 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7,883 -71%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,010 · open −$2,617
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$733
Realized−$3,010
Unrealized−$2,617
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 56
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions312
Markets (closed)73 / 95
Avg bet$116
Trades / day790.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%
Chart Positions 312 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,810
7 days−$3,010
14 days−$3,010
30 days−$3,010
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 69¢ $20 $69 +$49 (+247%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 66¢ $20 $66 +$46 (+227%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 56¢ $20 $56 +$36 (+182%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $4 $42 +$38 (+917%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $4 $40 +$36 (+863%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $21 $31 +$10 (+50%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 16¢ $2 $28 +$25 (+1220%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $4 $27 +$23 (+551%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $4 $26 +$22 (+527%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 14¢ $2 $23 +$20 (+980%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $4 $22 +$18 (+425%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $4 $21 +$17 (+407%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+25%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 28¢ $1 $17 +$16 (+1385%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+660%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $4 $13 +$9 (+209%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $50 $10 −$39 (-79%)
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 50¢ 14¢ $39 $10 −$28 (-73%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+42%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+628%)
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+413%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+160%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will France win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $0 $5 +$4 (+872%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$46 -283%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $30 +$24 +78%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $60 −$29 -49%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $50 −$19 -38%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 −$29 -29%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $76 +$73 +96%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$30 -90%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $392 +$618 +158%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $30 −$27 -88%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 12 $236 −$205 -87%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $200 −$171 -86%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $200 −$180 -90%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 −$38 -77%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 +$28 +56%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $249 −$246 -99%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $220 −$183 -83%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$41 -77%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $394 −$307 -78%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 +$72 +145%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $300 −$258 -86%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 −$76 -76%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $123 +$34 +27%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Jun 12 $300 −$261 -87%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $237 −$197 -83%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $167 −$156 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $337 −$287 -85%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $310 −$231 -75%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 −$11 -21%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 +$103 +205%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $21 −$18 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $170 −$71 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $287 −$102 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$78 +78%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $30 −$11 -37%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $28 −$13 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$97 -98%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $140 −$111 -79%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$92 -92%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $190 −$109 -57%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $69 +$124 +180%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$52 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$90 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $420 +$17 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$19 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% −$4,484
sports 7% −$482
crypto 3% −$254
politics 2% −$123
culture 2% −$68
weather 1% −$126
economics 0% −$25
tech 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 8m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 14m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 15m
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 16m
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 19m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 48¢ $14 23m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 25m
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF SELL Yes 12¢ $8 27m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 28m
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29m
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 29m
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 41m
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 44m
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 45m
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 46m
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 49m
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes 28¢ $2 54m
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 18% -40.9%
≤30d 73 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 18% -40.9%
≤90d 73 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 18% -40.9%
all 73 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 18% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover790.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 18% -40.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 18% -46.5%
15% -27.8% 15% -51.7%
20% -34.9% 15% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.35 · official $733.40 (match) · 3500 history records