Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

25 0x25ae…affa other 4 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$407 (+89%) realized +$297 · open +$110

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +122% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +93% what you keep after slip

Net edge+93%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$115per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+100.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+121.7%	+100.6%	100%	100%	+93.9%
≤30d	2	+121.7%	+100.6%	100%	100%	+93.9%
≤90d	2	+121.7%	+100.6%	100%	100%	+93.9%
all	2	+121.7%	+100.6%	100%	100%	+93.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+100.6%	100%	+93.9%
10%	+81.4%	100%	+75.3%
15%	+63.9%	100%	+58.4%
20%	+47.8%	100%	+42.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +114% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +122% · $-wt +114% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$145 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$310

Realized+$297

Unrealized+$110

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$115

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	21¢	$100	$293	+$193 (+193%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	1¢	$100	$16	−$84 (-84%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$50	+$67	+134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$203	+$222	+109%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$50	46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5	BUY Over	47¢	$203	2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$103	2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.70 · official $309.70 (match) · 6 history records