Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25ae…5c11 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-4%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -24.4% -31.6% 54% 31% -28.9%
≤30d 13 -24.4% -31.6% 54% 31% -28.9%
≤90d 13 -24.4% -31.6% 54% 31% -28.9%
all 13 -24.4% -31.6% 54% 31% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 31% -28.9%
10% -38.2% 23% -35.7%
15% -44.1% 15% -41.9%
20% -49.6% 15% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records