Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25ae…bf20 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$72 (+11%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% +$44
crypto 19% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.1% -2.2% 100% 0% -2.2%
≤30d 1 +8.1% -2.2% 100% 0% -2.2%
≤90d 26 -9.2% -17.9% 50% 42% -5.7%
all 26 -9.2% -17.9% 50% 42% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -5.7%
10% -25.7% 35% -14.7%
15% -32.9% 27% -23.0%
20% -39.5% 23% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage41d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $536 +$44 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 16 $15 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 16 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 16 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 16 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 16 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 16 $4 +$5 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 16 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $416 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $292 26d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $114 36d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 36d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 36d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records