Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25ab…6321
sports · 273 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$26,395 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21,523 · open −$4,872
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,634
Realized−$21,523
Unrealized−$4,872
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses78 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions7
Markets (closed)266 / 273
History coverage229d
Avg bet$635
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 7 History 266 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,684
7 days−$987
14 days−$457
30 days−$5,992
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 86¢ 48¢ $12,719 $7,200 −$5,519 (-43%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1,100 $1,030 −$70 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 24¢ 56¢ $267 $621 +$354 (+133%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $480 $508 +$28 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner B8 12¢ 100¢ $60 $498 +$438 (+729%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $460 $410 −$50 (-11%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $420 $368 −$52 (-12%)
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Chelsea FC 11¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Club Atlético de Madrid 6¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $276 $0 −$276 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $153 $0 −$153 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Astralis 20¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 22¢ 0¢ $217 $0 −$217 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Legacy 32¢ 0¢ $192 $0 −$192 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $610 $0 −$610 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs Natus Vincere 12¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Chelsea FC 8¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $219 $0 −$219 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner BC.Game Esports 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BetBoom Team 12¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 13¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $497 −$487 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $506 −$495 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $222 −$217 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $296 −$289 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $736 +$1,114 +151%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $384 −$375 -98%
Spread: Ukraine (-1.5) Jun 07 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $398 +$1,002 +252%
Spread: Ukraine (-1.5) Jun 01 $12 +$138 +1116%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $622 −$610 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 19 $6,852 −$4,852 -71%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $248 −$246 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $196 −$192 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $277 +$672 +243%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $54 −$52 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $224 −$220 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $179 −$175 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $467 −$460 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $285 −$280 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $439 −$183 -42%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $383 −$379 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 12 $17,461 −$7,624 -44%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 12 $12,757 −$8,030 -63%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1,478 +$1,222 +83%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $111 +$437 +395%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $292 +$464 +159%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,314 +$406 +31%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $199 −$195 -98%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 09 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $126 +$394 +313%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $730 $0 +0%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $206 −$201 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $503 +$437 +87%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $282 −$276 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $157 −$153 -98%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 05 $64 −$62 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $422 +$288 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $248 −$242 -97%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $205 +$1,243 +606%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$19,583
sports 27% −$5,825
crypto 14% +$2,023
world 3% −$2,852
politics 2% −$125
culture 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 12¢ $60 52m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 21¢ $107 54m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $166 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $18 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $7 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $227 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $0 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $0 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $8 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $16 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $9 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $209 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 16¢ $328 23h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 13¢ $103 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $178 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $115 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $98 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $107 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $494 39h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 10¢ $62 42h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $235 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,131 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $473 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $433 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $1,498 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 24¢ $352 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 24¢ $368 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 24¢ $368 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -72.1% -74.7% 11% 11% -41.0%
≤30d 24 -8.7% -17.4% 17% 17% -53.5%
≤90d 79 -9.0% -17.6% 27% 24% -42.7%
all 266 -9.6% -18.2% 29% 27% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 27% -21.9%
10% -26.0% 24% -29.4%
15% -33.2% 24% -36.2%
20% -39.7% 23% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,634.38 · official $10,155.49 · 1583 history records