Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x25ab…c464 other 693 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$215 (+1%) realized +$215 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%673W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$77
14 days+$111
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$170
sports 29% +$77
tech 2% +$124
finance 1% −$159
weather 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 96 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 1% -8.7%
≤90d 536 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -8.7%
all 693 +1.0% -8.6% 97% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 1% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses673 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)693 / 693
History coverage180d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 693 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $623 +$6 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $12 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $43 $0 +1%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 21 $397 +$4 +1%
Daichi Kamada: 1+ goals Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $420 +$4 +1%
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $21 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $422 +$4 +1%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $122 +$1 +1%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $662 +$2 +0%
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals Jun 20 $200 +$1 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Yunus Akgün: 1+ goals Jun 20 $23 $0 +1%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $533 +$5 +1%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 20 $23 $0 +1%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $550 +$6 +1%
Mathew Leckie: 1+ goals Jun 19 $248 +$2 +1%
Mo Touré: 1+ goals Jun 19 $14 $0 +2%
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals Jun 19 $143 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $0 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $543 +$4 +1%
Abbosbek Fayzullayev: 1+ goals Jun 18 $538 +$5 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Caleb Yirenkyi: 1+ goals Jun 18 $110 +$1 +1%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $247 +$2 +1%
João Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $355 +$4 +1%
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $95 +$1 +1%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $125 +$1 +0%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $524 +$5 +1%
Leo Østigård: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $352 +$2 +1%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $520 +$2 +0%
Eli Just: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Eli Just: 2+ goals Jun 16 $148 +$2 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 $0 +1%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $163 +$1 +1%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $289 +$3 +1%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $286 +$3 +1%
Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $284 +$2 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $106 +$1 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
John McGinn: 1+ goals Jun 14 $280 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $32 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $12 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $585 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $513 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $3 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $63 2h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $397 13h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $320 13h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $407 14h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $13 14h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $14 14h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $5 14h
Daichi Kamada: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $55 14h
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $24 17h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 100¢ $22 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $310 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $112 21h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $23 21h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $21 22h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $1 24h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $3 24h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $96 24h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $100 24h
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1743 history records