Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x25a7…a4c8 other 702 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,623 (+0%) realized +$7,614 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate85%587W / 104L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$2,344per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$14,918now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$39
14 days+$120
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$7,457
politics 7% +$303
finance 6% +$345
world 1% +$18
tech 0% −$35
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -22.1% -29.5% 78% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 79 -16.6% -24.5% 81% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 490 +18.5% +7.3% 83% 4% -9.4%
all 691 +12.3% +1.6% 85% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 4% -9.1%
10% -8.1% 3% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -17.0% 3% -25.7%
20% -25.1% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,574) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.75 per $1 lost it wins $6.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$14,918
Realized+$7,614
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses587 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)691 / 702
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$2,344
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,985 $9,990 +$5 (+0%)
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,830 $1,833 +$3 (+0%)
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $702 $703 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 −$0 (-0%)
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 −$0 (-0%)
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $467 $467 +$0 (+0%)
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $460 $460 +$0 (+0%)
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $460 $460 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $359 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $452 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $249 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $1,855 +$12 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $2,126 +$4 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $169 $0 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $571 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $264 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $264 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $1,472 +$4 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $537 +$2 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $222 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $481 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $333 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $451 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $12,250 +$20 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $473 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $297 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $341 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $330 $0 +0%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1,069 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1,252 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $4,985 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1,491 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $14,672 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $961 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $1,354 +$1 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $9,160 +$9 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $9,995 +$10 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $752 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2,161 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $2,341 +$2 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $10,696 +$12 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $8,924 18m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $299 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $757 4h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 9h
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 28h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 28h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 28h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 28h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 33h
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $156 33h
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $156 33h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $5 43h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 43h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 43h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 43h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $305 43h
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 43h
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 43h
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $274 43h
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 43h
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 43h
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $274 43h
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $454 43h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 44h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $214 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,917.62 · official $14,917.62 (match) · 3500 history records