Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25a7…a69b crypto 13 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-12%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -23.5%
≤30d 13 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -23.5%
≤90d 13 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -23.5%
all 13 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 31% -23.5%
10% -49.3% 23% -30.8%
15% -54.2% 23% -37.5%
20% -58.7% 23% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$12 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$21 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$18 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records