Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25a1…ddf8 sports 607 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$573 (-9%) realized −$573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%277W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$31
14 days−$378
30 days−$1,025
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$62
other 18% −$189
crypto 8% −$498
world 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +8.4% -1.9% 54% 53% -6.7%
≤30d 447 -34.5% -40.7% 29% 28% -24.6%
≤90d 506 -16.4% -24.3% 36% 36% -20.4%
all 605 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 45% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 45% -18.4%
10% -17.4% 45% -26.2%
15% -25.4% 43% -33.3%
20% -32.7% 41% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses277 / 328
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions2
Markets (closed)605 / 607
History coverage158d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 61¢ 60¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 +$30 +119%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 +$8 +75%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$13 +129%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$30 +152%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $4 +$3 +79%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$23 +158%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$13 +65%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $6 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$25 +97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $35 +$20 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 +$17 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$6 +105%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4 +$3 +79%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $18 −$18 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $16 +$16 +101%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $6 +$3 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$17 +83%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 +$22 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $17 +$13 +75%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 +$9 +76%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$24 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$5 +119%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $35 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $15 10h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 10h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $10 10h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $30 10h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $10 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $40 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 16h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 24h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $9 24h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $11 31h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $9 31h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $21 31h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $8 31h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $6 35h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $4 35h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $15 35h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 35h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 37h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 63¢ $35 39h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $25 39h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $19 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $18 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 2d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.01 · official $65.01 (match) · 1179 history records