Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:14:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x259e…a03a politics 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$16
politics 43% −$16
crypto 3% −$1
sports 3% −$55
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -6.0% -15.0% 5% 2% -9.8%
all 122 -7.2% -16.0% 6% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -24.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -31.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -38.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage116d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $235 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $235 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $749 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $280 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $244 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $714 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $220 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $211 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $189 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $252 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $448 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $283 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $277 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $247 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $284 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $276 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $237 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 7h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 11h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 14d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $35 14d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 22d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $235 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $235 32d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 32d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $247 34d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $247 35d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $231 35d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $231 36d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $234 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 364 history records