Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2592…53fe other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-4%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate59%30W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$2
sports 19% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 37% -13.3%
≤30d 51 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 37% -13.3%
≤90d 51 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 37% -13.3%
all 51 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 37% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 37% -13.3%
10% -26.9% 27% -21.6%
15% -34.0% 16% -29.2%
20% -40.5% 12% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 +$5 +15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $21 −$15 -70%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -85%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -59%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $35 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$24 +118%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $30 +$2 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 +$6 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$3 +17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$15 -73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$11 -57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$63 +124%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $62 +$6 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$8 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 +$14 +45%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -73%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$19 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 18m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 12h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $30 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 76¢ $5 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 22h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 22h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $20 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $20 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 40h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 41h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 87¢ $20 41h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records