Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2591…2ae0 crypto 462 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (256 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,694 (-9%) realized −$5,694 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%337W / 144L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day255.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,166
7 days−$5,836
14 days−$4,831
30 days−$4,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$678
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (256 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -6.7% -15.6% 70% 42% -20.9%
≤30d 481 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 43% -15.0%
≤90d 481 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 43% -15.0%
all 481 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 43% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover255.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 43% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 25% -23.1%
15% -26.9% 13% -30.5%
20% -34.1% 6% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$99 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,694
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses337 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)481 / 462
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$140
Trades / day255.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 481 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$24 -693%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$110 -86811%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$95 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $988 −$988 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$22 -395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $712 −$1,260 -177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$48 -383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $140 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $130 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $116 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $112 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $74 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$22 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $93 −$33 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$19 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$42 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $48 −$20 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$27 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $189 −$55 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$17 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $150 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $138 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $130 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $116 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $112 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $70 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $65 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $65 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $67 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records