Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x2591…b7c1 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$145 (-2%) realized −$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$327
7 days+$321
14 days+$624
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$152
world 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -45.0% -50.2% 33% 33% +44.7%
≤30d 11 -43.8% -49.2% 27% 27% +12.9%
≤90d 45 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 38% -7.7%
all 45 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 38% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 38% -7.7%
10% -24.2% 33% -16.5%
15% -31.6% 33% -24.6%
20% -38.3% 33% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$102 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage60d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $520 +$339 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $178 −$12 -7%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $263 +$273 +104%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $34 +$30 +88%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $43 −$42 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $61 −$61 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $162 −$162 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $23 −$23 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 21 $23 −$9 -40%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner May 15 $159 −$158 -99%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 15 $327 −$322 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $307 +$235 +77%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $86 +$12 +14%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 14 $49 +$40 +82%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner May 13 $51 +$34 +66%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $320 −$316 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 13 $146 −$144 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win - Game 1 Winner May 08 $153 −$151 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $200 +$44 +22%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $319 +$266 +84%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $21 −$4 -19%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $307 +$270 +88%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $30 +$297 +995%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $325 +$252 +78%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $24 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $157 −$157 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $40 −$16 -39%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $283 −$283 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Apr 22 $218 +$293 +134%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $142 +$88 +62%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $362 −$362 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $221 +$146 +66%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $317 −$317 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $319 +$263 +82%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $199 +$119 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $859 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 71¢ $110 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 62¢ $79 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 57¢ $262 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 57¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 57¢ $64 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $27 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $37 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $63 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $54 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $31 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $46 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 5d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 2¢ $6 5d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner SELL L1ga Team 99¢ $536 8d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 44¢ $9 8d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 44¢ $2 8d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 45¢ $91 8d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 50¢ $54 8d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 50¢ $4 8d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 50¢ $5 8d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 50¢ $4 8d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 47¢ $29 8d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 52¢ $64 8d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $64 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records