Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x2590…8fa2 crypto 194 markets active 3h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+7%) realized +$128 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%85W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$30
14 days+$80
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$80
other 9% −$39
sports 4% −$17
world 1% +$1
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +16.7% +5.6% 44% 44% +14.3%
≤30d 158 +5.8% -4.3% 47% 45% -3.4%
≤90d 185 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 44% -6.4%
all 185 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 44% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 44% -6.4%
10% -16.4% 42% -15.3%
15% -24.4% 38% -23.5%
20% -31.9% 36% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses85 / 100
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)185 / 194
History coverage36d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Yes 28¢ 52¢ $11 $21 +$10 (+84%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? No 27¢ 38¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+41%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $11 $15 +$3 (+31%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 21¢ 5¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-74%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-93%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$33 +280%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$25 +208%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$5 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$21 +177%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $36 +$7 +20%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$21 +180%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$21 +177%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 10 $71 −$35 -49%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 10 $12 −$7 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $12 −$6 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $24 +$7 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $12 −$7 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $12 −$7 -56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$6 -47%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 10 $12 −$9 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $24 −$13 -56%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 9? Jun 08 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 9? Jun 08 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 08 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$8 +136%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 8? Jun 07 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $18 −$13 -73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 07 $6 +$9 +145%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $12 +$17 +140%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 7? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $12 +$10 +84%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 06 $12 +$11 +92%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 05 $6 +$4 +71%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 05 $6 +$7 +111%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 8? Jun 05 $6 −$3 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$4 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 05 $6 +$5 +77%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 05 $6 +$8 +141%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 05 $12 +$4 +34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 05 $12 +$8 +67%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 6? Jun 05 $6 +$9 +150%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 05 $12 +$5 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$3 +49%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 June 1-7? Jun 05 $6 +$6 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 27¢ $12 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 21¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 85¢ $16 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 63¢ $33 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 83¢ $33 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? BUY No 15¢ $12 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $33 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 88¢ $33 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $12 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.93 · official $87.52 · 448 history records