Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x258f…fb38 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$2
politics 3% +$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤30d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤90d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
all 2 +33.3% +20.6% 100% 100% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 100% +18.4%
10% +9.1% 100% +7.1%
15% -1.5% 50% -3.2%
20% -11.1% 0% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage149d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 87¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jan 22 $8 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $10 146d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $10 146d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $30 149d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $60 149d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY No 81¢ $8 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.32 · official $271.32 (match) · 163 history records