Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x258f…7de0 crypto 884 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate54%481W / 403L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day59.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$16
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 8% -10.9%
≤30d 884 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 7% -11.7%
≤90d 884 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 7% -11.7%
all 884 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 7% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 7% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 2% -20.1%
15% -27.8% 1% -27.8%
20% -34.9% 1% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses481 / 403
Open positions0
Markets (closed)884 / 884
History coverage29d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day59.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 884 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1751 history records