Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x2589…a169 crypto 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$216 (+1%) realized +$216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%206W / 6L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$58
14 days+$74
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 118 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 1% -8.6%
≤90d 212 +1.2% -8.5% 97% 4% -8.5%
all 212 +1.2% -8.5% 97% 4% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 1% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.32 per $1 lost it wins $13.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses206 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage62d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $194 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $396 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $91 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $65 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $141 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 684 history records