Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x2589…bb9c world 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$197 (+50%) realized +$222 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +143% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +111% what you keep after slip
Net edge+111%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+119.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +142.9% +119.8% 100% 100% +119.8%
≤30d 1 +142.9% +119.8% 100% 100% +119.8%
≤90d 1 +142.9% +119.8% 100% 100% +119.8%
all 1 +142.9% +119.8% 100% 100% +119.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +119.8% 100% +119.8%
10% +98.7% 100% +98.7%
15% +79.5% 100% +79.5%
20% +61.9% 100% +61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +143% · $-wt +143% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$213 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$222
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 65¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 36¢ 34¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $149 +$213 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.94 · official $221.94 (match) · 7 history records