Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2589…85e0 crypto 299 markets active 3d ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,572 (-4%) realized −$1,572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%109W / 190L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$690
14 days−$690
30 days−$690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,682
finance 5% −$350
other 0% −$48
sports 0% −$100
politics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -19.6% -27.3% 34% 34% -14.5%
≤30d 138 -19.6% -27.3% 34% 34% -14.5%
≤90d 138 -19.6% -27.3% 34% 34% -14.5%
all 299 -16.4% -24.3% 36% 36% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 36% -14.4%
10% -31.6% 35% -22.6%
15% -38.2% 34% -30.1%
20% -44.2% 33% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$110 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses109 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)299 / 299
History coverage193d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 299 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $226 −$216 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $161 −$155 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$73 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $98 +$72 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $96 −$92 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $88 +$103 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $172 −$81 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $121 −$116 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$164 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $130 −$57 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $109 +$123 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $83 +$122 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $64 +$124 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $147 +$179 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $89 +$204 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $74 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$91 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $151 +$249 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $142 −$91 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $111 +$95 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $188 +$195 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $80 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $119 −$115 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$53 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $225 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $94 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $96 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $94 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1096 history records